More free money

Shrewd viewers will already be sitting on a big pile of cash from taking WoSblog's last betting advice. Now there's a golden opportunity to turn it into a pile of cash almost twice as big.

Frankly I'm astonished this bet is still available, so get in quick.

Soccerball lovers will have watched the abysmal capitulation of France in World Cup Group A last night with a mixture of dismay and hilarity, depending on whether they were (a) French, or (b) from anywhere else. (The booing of the French anthem by the crowd is hard to explain by any other means than that awareness of how they reached the finals has spread worldwide.)

More importantly, though, wise viewers will have noticed the opportunity the result presented. The situation in Group A, as detailed several times by the match commentators, is now this: if Uruguay and Mexico play out a draw next Tuesday, both will guarantee qualification for the knockout stages, at the expense of France and South Africa, no matter what the result of the France-South Africa game.

That's because a draw will leave them both with five points, while the French and South Africans, currently on one point each, can't now achieve more than four whatever they do.

The final games in Group B (which will provide the opponents for the winners and runners-up of Group A) take place at 7.30pm on Tuesday, while the last Group A matches are played at 3pm, so there won't be any reason for Uruguay or Mexico to go for the win in the hope of securing easier opponents in the second round, because they won't know who's going to finish first or second in Group B until several hours after their own match is over.

The fact that the bet is available at all is fairly amazing, the fact that it's on offer at 4/5 is absolutely staggering. (Ladbrokes, as seen above, are offering a fractionally less generous 8/11, which is still worth knowing if William Hill wake up at any point and realise what they're doing.)

You may even be able to find better prices online – these are the first two I looked for. But there can have been few bigger certainties in world football (and I'm including games where someone's been bribed). Remortgage your house and get in there.

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16 Responses to “More free money”

  1. Aha, it's working now.
    Anyway, Betfair have this bet on for 1.84, if that means anything to you gambling types.
    I've thrown £25 at it.

  2. 4/5 seems absolutely correct odds to me.  You really think 22 idiot soccer players are more than 50/50 likely to successfully pull off a collusion of this type?

  3. The history of international competitions (including the Denmark-Sweden game linked above and the infamous Germany-Austria match in 1982) indicates that that's precisely what they'll do. It's not exactly difficult to engineer a 0-0 draw, and neither team is obliged by the laws of the game to try to win.

  4. But Group B is already decided, Argentina win bar a 4-0 defeat to Greece… Uruguay and Mexico want to avoid Argentina and hence will play for a win.

    • You can’t say “Group B is decided” and then say “except”…

      Any of three teams could still technically finish top of Group B.

  5. Tote and Jennings are offering the same price (until several seconds ago Jennings were offering 5/6. Curses.)

  6. El Stevo Says:

    Those odds don't look wrong to me. As a rule of thumb, if they're similar to but slightly lower than the odds on Betfair then they're probably correct (1.8 compared to 1.84 in this case). In any case, the odds are better on Betfair.

    If you're interested in getting free money from bookies that is actually risk free you should look up "matched betting" on Google. I made about £1500 over the course of a year. It basically involves exploiting free bet offers by betting on all outcomes of a match and making a guaranteed profit. There are some good forums dedicated to it at moneysavingexpert.com.

  7. Weird. I looked at that bet on Betfair straight after the second goal went in for Mexico and it was at 1.63. Have they just adjusted to match what "traditional" bookies are offering or is there something else going on?

  8. El Stevo Says:

    The odds at Betfair aren't manually set or adjusted, it's market based. You're betting against other punters, not Betfair itself. If the odds are too low at Betfair they'll swiftly get hoovered up on the lay side (particularly on a big event like a World Cup match) because by making the opposite bet at a bookie (or at Betfair when the back odds rise) you can make a guaranteed profit no matter what the outcome of the match. This brings the price up.

  9. Being from Mexico, i can tell you this: Analysts from both countries say an agreement for a draw is not gonna be out of the question, but since neither team wants to face Argentina, it might not be their choice. We'll see.

  10. Yetiman Says:

    This could end in tears.

  11. Co-Pilot Grunty Says:

    Bugger.
    43 min: GOAL! Mexico 0 – Uruguay 1 (Suarez '43)
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/world-cup-2010/news/7842099/Mexico-v-Uruguay-live.html

  12. I wasn't expecting a 0-0, but we shall see.

  13. And there we have it.

  14. Oh well, can't win 'em all.

  15. Grim... Says:

    You owe me a mortgage.

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